Archive for the ‘The Unknown’ Category

Postcard Contest: Halftime

Monday, October 19th, 2020

Bernard and I are currently competing in a postcard design contest!

The rules are as follows:
1) Each of us selected 4 one-word categories.
2) We each designed (and professionally printed) one postcard per category and sent them once per week to each other.
3) Each pair of designs will be presented to a team of five elite judges who will select the best card each week.

The judges were not selected until after we’d made the cards, so as to avoid choosing designs to cater to a particular judge.

As of today we’re four weeks into the eight week contest. Four cards judged, four to go. Here’s the current results…

Category 1: Android

The first category was chosen by me, and both entries are shown above. Mine is the lovely shot of Cara D in a chrome suit, and Bernard cheekily chose Aegis in an effort to confuse the judges and maybe nick a point! Neither of these are technically androids, but there’s no rule that said that the cards had to adhere to the categories.

The votes were 3-2 in favour of my card. Here’s one judges comment: (She) has strong eyebrow game, and reminiscent of my purple rock star Barbie growing up!

Category 2: Computation

Bernard chose this category and his design – some esoteric code – is on the left. I chose an artistic shot of Andy Warhol and Debbie Harry at the American Amiga launch in the 80s. As with all my designs I tried to make cards you’d see on a rack in a postcard shop, and this one certainly fits the bill!

Once again the judges favoured my design 3-1 (with one tie!). One judge said: While I appreciate the mathematical notation, which in this font resembles an ancient inscription, I cannot go past Andy and Deb “using” an Amiga.

Category 3: Gold

Once again this was my category, and it was a difficult one to choose an image of! I rejected many options before coming up with the cozy shot of the golden loo. I thought it was funny and would certainly buy such a card myself. Bernard on the other hand forgot to make a specific card and instead chose a flower card he has (coincidentally) printed and sent it as his entry 🙂

And… the judges chose his in a landslide 4-1 win. They were strangely quiet about their decision, so we can only guess as to why they preferred the flower to the toilet!

Category 4: The Holy See

Bernard chose this not-quite-one-word category, and I think both of us regretted it since it was very difficult! He went with a safe choice – the Vatican flag – and I went with a too-clever choice of Francis Bacon’s Study after Velázquez’s Portrait of Pope Innocent X. This was of course because it was used as the cover of a Sisters Of Mercy record, but I wonder if the judges would know that?

They didn’t, or perhaps they just preferred the flag, since once again Bernard won 3-2! Two judges commented on how they preferred the flag since the Bacon art was scary 🙂

Halftime Score: Tied!

So after four cards the score is even Stevens: 2 points each!

Four cards left! What could the categories be? Will the judges remain as unpredictable as they have been? What about the fourth rule not listed above since it hasn’t come into play yet?

In a month, all will be revealed…

Day Trip

Tuesday, August 18th, 2020

Today we drove 90 minutes north…

To visit Bigfoot

Although just a metal statue, he was pretty impressive…

But the souvenir shop behind him didn’t sell anything good…

After a brief stop in Vermont we then drove over near Lake George and visited souvenir shops…

And some more souvenir shops…

And even bought a souvenir or two…

And then stopped for groceries on the way home…

And ultimately, many hours later, found probably the strangest thing we’d seen all day just down the street from our home…

It was a good day 🙂

Pandemic

Friday, March 13th, 2020

I climbed the hill, lay in the grass
A little dark-eyed girl drifted past
She said all the best is come, it could not last
And the worst, it has come true

That’s from one of my favorite Nick Cave songs. I’ve heard it countless times and often I think of what it would mean for the worst to have come true. Is that what we are facing now?

Back when I was in Japan I was reading about the novel Coronavirus as I sat in my Tokyo hotel room and texted Kristin that I thought it could “change the world”. I wasn’t being grim or fatalistic; it’s just that I had read about what was happening (before China officially admitted it) and had a feeling about the future. I returned to the USA and it was like it didn’t exist: no airport screening, virtually nothing in the media and almost no-one had heard of it.

Then China quarantined and it spread quickly. My idle comment had become portentous and I personally knew people that were affected in China. And still virtually nothing was said here in the US. When I signed and submitted my summer contract almost a month ago I asked what the backup plan was if coronavirus was keeping us all home. I was at least half serious, but there wasn’t any plan since most of the people in the office hadn’t even heard of it.

I wasn’t surprised by this. Even those of us who had been aware of the virus probably found it hard to believe it would shut down our ‘normal’ lives like it now has. Only three weeks ago a TA asked me if we’d have any classes after Spring Break (which starts next week) and I assured him yes since I couldn’t imagine the alternative.

Two days ago my school shifted all classes online for the remainder of the semester (2 months) and from now I’ll work from home. Yesterday KLS was sent home as well to work, and we’ve already bought her a desk for her computer since we have no idea how long this may last.

We’ve stocked up on supplies – our cupboards have never been this full – and personally witnessed the empty shelves in local shops. We’ve canceled appointments and are now prepared to stay here – in our house – until we need to go out and get more groceries every couple of weeks.

I’ve got a lot of work ahead of me shifting my course online (I have over 300 students who need to do the same) and there’s currently more questions than answers. Likewise for Kristin who must now adapt – with almost all her coworkers – to a distributed office communicating via the internet. We’re not just working from home; we’re learning (or rather devising) how to do our jobs in brand new ways from home.

And the virus only continues to spread as America and the world shuts down. Every day the news is grimmer and silver linings seem absent. The leadership in this country is a gaggle of incompetents who have made things worse and we can only hope they haven’t messed things up beyond the ability of the real adults (currently the state and local officials) to fix.

And yet I don’t think the worst has come true. The world has seen that China and Korea have waged bold and apparently successful fights against this, and I believe other countries will too. It will take sacrifice yes, but staying at home and skipping events and vacations is a small price for this victory. Like H1N1 in 2009 I believe the tide will turn with a treatment or vaccine, and right now everyone with the relevant expertise anywhere in the world is working on that (including at KLS’s company). It will take time, but someone will create it eventually.

Stay safe everyone. Stay home and limit your exposure in the interests of public health. Follow the advice of the experts and don’t be fooled (or scared) by misinformation.

This will be an uncertain and likely difficult period we are moving into, but there are sunny skies beyond. Look forward to them!

Gimbals & Tic-Tacs

Tuesday, December 17th, 2019

Back in 2004 sailors on the USS Nimitz that was at the time doing training exercises reported sightings of UFOs. This is not highly unusual: there is a rich history of UFO sightings by fighter pilots and near military assets. What makes this encounter strange is that it was recorded, and you can watch it yourself:

This video was leaked by a sailor many years after and the incident became part of an effort by interested parties to obtain more UFO information from the Navy.

You may have heard of one of the results of such efforts: the Navy has now legitimized UFO sighting reporting, and personnel are encouraged to come forward rather than keep silent in fear of recrimination.

It’s also led to other videos being released, which last month the Navy confirmed as unidentified. Quite literally, these videos show UFOs.

This is the so-called ‘gimbal’ UFO. Watch it rotate at the end:

And here is footage of the ‘go fast’ UFO, which as with all these others was filmed by fighter pilots:

When the news that the navy had changed its tack on UFO reports emerged earlier this year there were a few pilots coming forward with astonishing stories of sightings, and the official admission a few weeks ago that yes, navy pilots have seen (and recorded) UFOs will likely lead to more pilots speaking out. It seems, after 70 years, the military is finally acknowledging strange things in the sky.

But what are they? As I’ve said here before I absolutely believe in extraterrestrial life, but I find it hard to accept living beings making interstellar journeys. The vastness of space also makes finding other civilizations no easy task. So the odds seem stacked against them being alien or from parts unknown. I’d love to be wrong though.

For now I’ll accept the navy definition. These are unidentified. This simply means we don’t (yet) know what they are, not that we claim them to be anything specific 🙂

Infinite Ape Simulator

Thursday, November 14th, 2019

I’ve been thinking about the Infinite Monkey Theorem, which postulates that an infinite amount of monkeys banging away on keyboards randomly forever would eventually produce the works of Shakespeare. You can read about this in detail here.

I thought to myself, rather than use dirty monkeys to reproduce Shakespeare (which has been attempted), why not use a machine brain? So I turned to an actual honest-to-goodness computer and wrote a simulation.

My machine was the Commodore 64, and I wrote a simple piece of code to randomly generate three letters in order and test to see if they spelled ‘act’, the first word of Hamlet. I was testing the water, so to speak, instead of diving right into a full reproduction of the entire play.

Now it’s fairly simple statistics to calculate that of the 17576 possible three letter words, only one is ‘act’. But I started by looking for words that started with ‘a’ (ie. of the form a–) of which there are 676, and then words starting with ac-, of which there are 26. I timed my result to see if – as expected – each successively correct letter took approximately 26 times as long to generate as the previous.

Here’s my code alongside one example output looking specifically for ‘act’:

The time is in seconds, and I ran 12 searches each for a– and ac- and 5 (due to the time required) for act. Here are the average times to generate each type of result:

A–: 3 seconds
AC-: 84 seconds
ACT: 2027 seconds

These numbers are close to 26x multiples of each other as expected, and I imagine were I to do enough tests they would converge to that value. From these results we can speculate how long it may take for my C64 to recreate Hamlet…

But first some facts: Hamlet has 132680 letters and 199749 characters in total including spaces and seven punctuation signs. Including these but ignoring case, there are 34 potential candidates for each character and 199749 characters need to be generated. My predictions that follow are based on times equal to 34/26 of those listed above.

The expected (ie. 50% chance) time it would take my C64 to randomly generate Hamlet would be 34^199746 times 1908 seconds which is (approximately) 34^199739 million years. The minimum time is about 1.7 hours ( if it got it right on the first go) and the maximum is of course infinity.

But – given our universe is only less than 14,000 million years old – this means I’m confident in saying my C64 would never randomly generate Hamlet. In fact were I to expand the sim to look for the sequence ‘Act 1’ I would expect the average successful attempt to take about one month. If I extended the sim all the way to the first spoken word – over 100 characters in – I’d expect the Earth would be consumed by the sun before my C64 did it.

Some of you say “that’s just a C64!”, which is primitive compared to the device you’re reading this on. But even if your fancy phone or laptop is a trillion times more powerful, this is nothing compared to a factor of ~10^200k.

It’s pleasant to think of infinite typing apes (or computers) randomly spewing out a work of art, but it would never happen 🙂

(Incidentally and somewhat related; the world is still awaiting the results of B’s testing of this!)